2024 Trucking Industry Outlook

2024: Focus on the road ahead

Wow, what a year 2023 was. It started off strong, eased up over the summer months as is typical for trucking, but struggled to end as strong as industry experts were forecasting. It was a year of ups and downs.

The holidays are over, we’ve caught up on emails, and it’s time to focus on the road ahead. If you’ve done any reading of industry websites, blogs and threads, you know the trucking outlook 2024 is not likely to change much from last year. We are in this with you, and we want to share some information we find helpful in guiding our business in 2024. ACT Research and FTR Transportation Intelligence are two agencies we rely on for industry data. Both groups have similar analysis when it comes to trends for 2024.

First, we need to consider two elements that will have an impact on many aspects of trucking in 2024:

2024 is a major election year. No matter which side of the aisle you lean, political unrest affects the economy, and a softened economy hits the trucking industry early through lower quantity of goods moving and potential changes to fuel costs and availability.
2027 EPA emissions standard changes. While that seems a long way off, in “truck years” it’s right around the corner. This means all 2027 model year diesel trucks coming out in 2026 will have newer equipment which will be coming in at about a 10-12 percent higher cost.

What does this mean for trucking in 2024?

Equipment Availability:

While Heavy-duty (class 8) vehicle production was improving, it does and will continue to lag behind an increasingly strong demand for new equipment throughout 2024 and 2025. Demand for sleepers has softened, but day cabs and heavy-duty vocational equipment such as refuse, dumps, and others are also seeing strong demand. Larger over-the-road fleets are still working to catch up on replacement cycles, but many smaller fleets are still looking for newer equipment. Dealers continue to struggle with less-than-optimal production levels, making stock inventory levels scarce in some parts of the country. The good news is that OEMs are looking at rising inventory levels in parts of the country that are seeing less demand, and they are shifting production to dealers in markets such as the northeast where demand is stronger. Federal emissions changes will have everyone looking to acquire assets now to save on costs.
If you run medium duty (class 6-7), you have it a bit easier, as production had started to catch up to demand at the end of 2023. The issue you may run into is with a soft economy that traditionally softens freight tonnage, you may actually find equipment sitting vs on the road. Also, as with the class 8 equipment, any class 6-7 that has a diesel engine will have the same federal emissions requirements, so watch for demand to increase as we get closer to the newer equipment and higher costs.
Electric vehicle (EV) availability is expected to stay the course. This option continues to be a niche for specific uses and has not yet reached the broader industry.

Understanding the 2027 Emissions Changes:

We’ve been through this before, and we’re sure this won’t be the last. Required emissions regulations have had the OEMs focusing technology and engineering efforts to develop products that cost effectively meet the new requirements with as minimal a cost adjustment as possible. Some of the key elements of the new regulations include:

A drastic 82.5 percent decrease in NOx emissions set for normal operation, low-load, idle and start up conditions
An increase in defined useful life of regulated vehicles goes from 435,000 miles to 650,000 miles
Emission system warranties increase from 100,000 miles to 450,000 miles

The increases in useful life and warranty periods are meant to ensure equipment remains compliant throughout the life of the vehicle, but from a fleet perspective, it means you have better protection on your investment. Overall costs may be going up, but you should benefit from lower maintenance and repair costs in the long run.

Freight Tonnage:

The economy has a direct impact on manufacturing, which in turn affects freight tonnage. There is a definite slowing in manufacturing in general – both consumer and commercial or industrial goods. With less goods to move, we begin to see truck utilization go down. Experts feel that this trend will continue through the first half of the year, with marginal if any uptick in the manufacturing sector.
Current low spot rates will stabilize in 2024 and could see marginal and incremental improvements toward year end.

What does this mean for trucking in 2024?

If you manage your own in-house fleet maintenance program, there could be an upside to partnering with a certified full-service dealership. This partnership can eliminate hiring and recruitment issues, training and tooling costs and simplify your responsibilities. Review our OnSite Maintenance Program to see if its right for you. We have a number of onsite programs that have been productively running for years.
Commercial truck parts availability has improved and will continue to remain a positive element when it comes to maintaining your fleet. We have 8 parts and industrial supply stores in addition to parts available at all our commercial truck service centers across PA, NJ, DE and MD.
If you use trailers in your operations, getting new trailers or adding to your trailer fleet will be easy. Bergey’s is a certified Wabash dealership with options for dry freight, refrigerated and flatbed needs.

While 2024 may be poised to be another challenging year, with the right partners, we can all hope to see a strengthening economy after the elections are over and prepare for the coming emissions changes that will have an even stronger impact next year.

Bergey’s Truck Centers Acquires Cumberland Truck

Bergey’s Truck Centers Acquires Cumberland Truck

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2024 Trucking Industry Outlook

2024: Focus on the road ahead

Wow, what a year 2023 was. It started off strong, eased up over the summer months as is typical for trucking, but struggled to end as strong as industry experts were forecasting. It was a year of ups and downs.

What does this mean for trucking in 2024?

Equipment Availability:

Understanding the 2027 Emissions Changes:

Freight Tonnage:

What does this mean for trucking in 2024?

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