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2026 Trucking Outlook: Slow but Steady

Top 6 Trends Reshaping 2026 Trucking

2026 Trucking Outlook Blog

As 2026 rolls in, we find the trucking industry entering a phase of cautious stabilization. After years of volatility, 2026 trucking will be a year of moderate growth. Experts from ACT Research and the North American Transportation Services Association (NATSA) have reviewed economic conditions as well as domestic freight trends to come up with a cautiously optimistic view that doesn’t rule out continued volatility.

  • Gradual Rebalancing: Capacity is finally tightening as carrier exits—particularly among smaller fleets and owner-operators—begin to align with increasingly steady demand.
  • Rate Projections: Spot rates are projected to increase by 4% to 6% year-over-year. Contract rates are expected to rise more modestly as the market approaches equilibrium.
  • What’s Driving Demand: Growth is unevenly distributed, with strong demand from sectors like pharmaceuticals, healthcare, and cross-border manufacturing in Mexico.

Top 6 Trucking Trends

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AI-Driven Fleet Management: Today’s AI technology is shifting from “nice-to-have” to a foundation for survival. Mid-sized fleets are increasingly using predictive maintenance tools and are beginning to adopt AI-powered dispatching systems to build profit margins internally rather than waiting for the slow shift of the market.
AI and Trucking
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Regulatory Compliance:

  • Speed-Limiter Proposals: Experts are watching this proposed legislation which could require speed limiters for heavy duty trucks
  • Revisions to ELD Mandates: While already required, there could be changes coming
  • Emissions Planning: Fleets are actively planning for EPA 2027 standard changes and CARB-related compliance challenges despite uncertainty regarding potential policy shifts
  • Safety Metrics: The FMCSA is expected to update its Safety Measurement System (SMS) mid-year which will affect how carriers are scored and prioritized for intervention
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Fleet “Replacement-Only” Strategy: Due to high capital costs and thin margins, fleets are focusing on asset replacement over expansion.

  • Medium Duty: Slowing growth of services driven by cautious consumer behaviors are hindering fleet demand for light and medium duty trucks. The good news for fleets with aging equipment is that Class 4-7 truck inventory remains high, so finding the right replacement equipment won’t be an issue
  • Heavy Duty: This is leading to a contraction in the Class 8 tractor population while increasing demand for used trucks and maintenance services
  • Trailers: Dry vans will continue to see low demand. With this low demand, OEMs are cautious with order boards. Flatbeds are more stable due to higher demands in the infrastructure and utility markets
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Workforce Resilience: A 174K+ driver shortage has recruitment strategies moving toward relationship-driven benefits such as predictable schedules and driver wellness. The FMCSA is implementing a Safe Driver Apprenticeship Pilot Program which lowers the interstate driver age to 18 to help attract younger drivers.

Happy Driver
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Autonomous and Electric Evolution:

  • Electric: Short-haul, final-mile delivery and port drayage continues to be the sweet spot for commercial EVs, where infrastructure is more accessible
  • Autonomous: The “self-driving” rig is not strongly adopted in our Northeast trucking corridor, so don’t watch for it to come to a Bergey’s dealership in 2026, but autonomous trials are expanding on major shipping corridors in the Southwest where roads are long, flat and straight. Even then, a human driver remains standard for that first and last mile
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Prioritize Maintenance: With fewer new trucks entering the market, keeping aging units running through preventative maintenance is critical for maintaining service levels. Uptime and reliability will be prioritized over fleet expansion. This ties into fleet connectivity and strong relationships with OEM dealers who have the expertise and training to keep you on the road.

Preventive Maintenance for Commericial Truck Fleets

Overall, 2026 trucking is forecasted be a year of gradual improvement, with pending regulatory emissions changes driving necessary investments and changes to operations. Rely on ONE BERGEY: The entire team at Bergey’s Truck Centers Sales & Service, Bergey’s Truck Parts, Bergey’s Leasing and Bergey’s Commercial Tires are ready to help you navigate toward a successful and prosperous 2026.